2025 Commerce Predictions, According To Top Venture Capitalists

Commerce, or the buying and selling of goods globally, is one of our economy's largest drivers and continues to see rapid evolution. Rewinding to the start of 2024, venture capitalists were hoping for a year that would see a thawing out in the venture pullback and more dry powder deployed into promising businesses, with AI taking top billing in many investors' minds as the next big thing (view last year’s Commerce predictions from top VCs). At year's end, two things were clear: the thaw in investment hadn't fully materialized as hoped, and AI is no longer the next big thing—it's simply the big thing, punto.

In reality, while last year’s venture funding saw its first uptick since 2021 according to the latest CB Insights State of Venture Report, with Q4 2024 marking the strongest quarter since Q1 2022, overall investment levels remained below 2020 highs. AI-related deals surged to 37% of all investments last year, up from 21% the previous year, leaving many to wonder if we've reached "peak AI bubble" - or if there’s yet much further to go. Notably, consumer sectors failed to crack the top 10 investment categories in 2024, which highlights the continued challenges in the space – or, perhaps, that while investors flock elsewhere, there is mispriced risk in commerce.

Looking ahead to 2025, several major shifts in commerce appear imminent. The rise of "The Aquarius Economy," one where human creativity and digital tools merge, will accelerate, with the creator economy projected to exceed $500B. A new generation of streamlined e-commerce platforms for creators and SMBs seems poised to emerge, as existing solutions have become too complex and expensive. Meanwhile, the era of deglobalization will deepen, especially impacting US-China trade and driving unprecedented investment in domestic manufacturing.

From here, let’s dive into what leading Commerce VCs predict for key trends in 2025:

Expansion and Experimentation in Brand Marketing, Plus an IPO

"Influencer marketing will expand broadly beyond beauty and fashion into other verticals of digital sales - health, travel, and beyond. It will also continue becoming more programmatic in spend and ROI-driven vs a budget item within brand marketing. Major brands launch LLM-powered personalized shopping assistants directly on their ecommerce sites, but results will be mixed. More brands adopt a 'drop' format for launching new SKUs. Vuori files to go public." — Amy Wu Martin, Partner, Menlo VC

Media Diversification and M&A Activity

"Some areas in commerce I'm particularly interested in 2025: Ad inventory will diversify as gaming / Applovin, CTV, and in-media advertising continues to take share from Meta / TikTok. Influencer marketing will continue to grow, especially among offline brands seeking brand uplift. A big M&A year for consumer brands, large and small, as strategic buyers are no longer shackled by regulatory barriers or high interest rates." — Sasha Kaletsky, Creator Ventures

AI-Powered Search Takes Center Stage

"The rise of AI-Search on platforms such as ChatGPT, Perplexity, GoogleAI, and countless more will prompt retailers/brands to focus on how their company, products, and services are showing up in these results. In simplistic terms - they will be focused on AI Search SEO. This will likely prove more challenging than Google-centric SEO, as brands/retailers compete for being included in the single answer, rather than trying to make sure they are in the top few slots in a search listing. In 2025, brands/retailers will pay more attention to how their sites are being crawled and will turn to third party providers to help correct and optimize where and how they show up in AI searches." — Matt Nichols, General Partner, Commerce Ventures

Reimagined Digital Shopping Experiences

"Today's ecommerce solutions have been modeled after physical store experiences that date back decades. Merchandising by categories (similar to 'aisles') and relying on consumer search has increasingly become a burden as the number of places where one can shop, items per category, pricing, and reviews compound. AI and AI agents enable a proactive shopping experience that can truly be built for an efficient digital format with proactive one-to-one customized suggestions based on preferences and an individual's unique calendar taking the mental load off of consumers and returning us to a more efficient and enjoyable shopping experience." — Jenny Fleiss, Co-Founder, Rent the Runway, Jetblack and Roll Rider + angel investor / adviser

The Transformation of Traditional Retail

"Consumer retail is dead. Long live consumer retail! The narrative that traditional retail is in decline has persisted for years, the truth is that the industry is simply transforming to meet the demands of a changing consumer landscape. The most innovative and beloved retailers, those that cultivate a devoted following—such as Erewhon with its premium grocery experience, T.J. Maxx with its treasure-hunt shopping appeal, and Solidcore with its boutique fitness model—are not just surviving; they are thriving. These brands succeed by delivering exceptional value, creating unique experiences, and fostering emotional connections with their customers. Retail isn't dying—it's being reimagined for the next generation of consumers." — Jeff Truong, Broadway Venture Partners

A Return to Authenticity and Evolution of Healthcare

"From agentic to authentic. Consumers overwhelmed by choice and bombarded by hyper-personalized offers will look for ways to cut through the noise and find trusted brands to stick with. Emotion and experience will trump efficiency. We'll see a revival in bespoke and 'wow' store experiences, high-street renaissance, pop-ups, in-person events, cross-brand collaboration, and human interactions. Community will trump consumerism, and with post-crisis Los Angeles top of mind, we will be more grateful for the things we have and more discerning about the things we want. Physical and digital products that evoke emotion and are driven by community will win.

Consumerization of healthcare will finally happen. Healthcare providers will shift from admin-heavy operations to empathy-driven care, with a trend towards holistic health and longevity. Consumers flush with HSA/FSA dollars, and new ways to spend it, will drive a shift of dollars to health-adjacent categories, including bespoke supplements, laser facials, PRP hair loss treatments, nootropics, and alternative therapies that were previously out of reach. We will continue to see these consumer healthcare offerings popping up in malls and main streets. Insurers and providers who don't modernize and take a customer-centric approach will not survive, and healthcare advocacy and navigation companies like Sheer Health will continue to thrive.

Last mile revolution - As brands fight for customers, the last mile will define customer experience. Quite literally, brands will need to meet the customer where they are. Customers will want their packages delivered around their flexible lifestyles. This will require agility in the middle layer to get parcels to customers wherever they may be, at the specific time they want it. Smarter robots will finally enable this change while driving more cost-effective and sustainable delivery." — Amanda Herson, General Partner, Founder Collective

A few throughlines are clear from these predictions: First, the pendulum is swinging back toward authenticity and human connection in retail, even as AI capabilities expand. While artificial intelligence will eventually transform everything from inventory management to customer service, the most successful brands will use it to enhance the human connection offered by their brand, rather than replace it. Second, the creator economy and influencer marketing sectors are evolving beyond their beauty and fashion roots into more sophisticated, ROI-driven arenas spanning multiple verticals. Third, traditional retail isn't dying but transforming, with physical spaces reimagined around community and experience rather than transactions. Finally, the broader economic and geopolitical context of deglobalization will continue to push brands to rethink their supply chains and distribution models, with implications from manufacturing to last-mile delivery.

While consumer may not have been a top venture investment sector in 2024, the intersection of these trends suggests significant opportunities ahead. With last year’s mega-rounds concentrating in AI and early-stage deals representing 74% of total activity, 2025 promises to be a pivotal year for commerce evolution—one where the most successful companies will find ways to harness technological advancement while meeting consumers' growing desire for authenticity, community, and meaningful experiences.