Bears are playoff underdogs according to 46.5% ESPN playoff projection

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The Chicago Bears are coming off a magical 2025 season, where they won a ton of close games, won the NFC North for the first time in a while, and even beat the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Wild Card round.

It was a great first season of the Ben Johnson era, and one that Bears fans can reasonably be excited about building upon moving forward. However, there's one issue: not everyone believes in the Bears.

ESPN's Seth Walder shared a projection for the Bears' playoff odds, which reveal that Caleb Williams (who's on the Madden cover this year) and the Bears are underdogs, thanks to a 46.5% chance to make the playoffs.

Bears are underdogs with 46.5% chance to make playoffs

"Chicago is a light underdog to make the playoffs (46.5%) and has only a 19.4% chance to win the NFC North - roughly half of the Lions' chances," Walder writes.

This projection from ESPN comes from their FPI, which is found through various simulations and statistics to predict the upcoming NFL season.

In the Bears' case, this projection indicates that their 2025 breakout season was more of a mirage than something with staying power.

This projection is not what Bears fans will want to see heading into the 2026 season, as this model clearly doesn't believe in Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson repeating the success they had last season.

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Of course, a 46.5% chance to make the playoffs isn't exceptionally terrible, but considering the Detroit Lions are all the way up at 68.4%, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are at 47.4% right in front of the Bears, it's hard not to feel disappointment.

The difficult NFC North is a big reason for these lower odds, as having to face the Lions, Packers, and even the Minnesota Vikings twice is not an easy setup for the Bears.

Add in a first-place schedule, the departure of DJ Moore, and a new, but shaky, offensive line, and it would not be a total surprise if the Bears regressed a bit this season.

Still, the Bears being underdogs to just make the playoffs after winning the NFC North last season is a disappointing projection from ESPN for Bears fans.