European EV Sales Resuming Growth, But Too Slowly For EU 2030 Targets

Electric vehicle sales in Europe will shake off their lethargy in 2025 and resume strong upward momentum.

That will keep alive the short-term hopes of the EV lobby, but the push for an overwhelming 80% market share demanded by the EU by 2030 look delusional, doomed by high prices and the failure of the industry to design and make mass-market vehicles.

Provisional data from Schmidt Automotive Research shows EV sales in Western Europe last year slipped slightly to 1.9 million and a market share of 16.6%, but this year will power ahead to 2.7 million (22.2%).

EV Volumes said it expects a return to growth this year in Europe as a whole.

“This is thanks to the rollout of new EVs, lower prices, and the implementation of more ambitious (EU) CO2 emission targets. EVs are predicted to gain a 24.7% share, as (sales) improve by 25.2%,” EV Volumes said in an article published by J.D.Power’s Autovista24.

Matt Schmidt of Schmidt Automotive Research expects Western Europe EV sales to hit 7.8 million by 2030 and a 57% market share. (Western Europe includes all the big markets like Germany, Britain, France, Italy and Spain). That’s a bit less than EV Volumes’ forecast of a 61.6% share in 2030 for Europe as a whole. Both are on the high side of other predictions for all of Europe.

French automotive consultancy Inovev sees an EV market share of 40% at most by 2030 in Europe.

Investment researcher Jefferies cut more than two million sales from its 2030 forecast a couple of months ago. The 2030 forecast now stands at 4.7 million for a market share of 35%, down from the previous 50%, while its 50% expectation for 2035 is half of the European Union‘s mandate.

Professor Stefan Bratzel, director of Germany’s Center of Automotive Management, said market share is likely to be between 40 and 50% in 2030 because of a lack of mass-market EVs.

“I would say that (the EU’s mandated target, effectively close to an 80% market share) will not be achieved by 2030. It would be a big challenge to reach 50% but there is a need for affordable cars in lower segments,” Bratzel said in an interview.

Schmidt said 2024 will be the final year of stagnation, and sales this year will be enhanced by new products.

New Small EVs In 2025

“Key smaller and semi-affordable protagonists, such as Renaults’ R5, the Dacia Spring refresh, Stellantis’s Citroen eC3 and BMW’s first Neue Klasse-based models will begin entering the stage. Why? To contribute to achieving tougher EU CO2 rules,” Schmidt said in a report.

In 2025, the EU CO2 regime sets a much higher bar on the way to achieving new car sales comprising 100% EVs by 2035.

Bernstein Research wondered whether the slowdown in Europe’s EV sales was structural or temporary.

“(weak EV sales) left many of us questioning the longer-term outlook for EV demand, the feasibility of the EU’s 2035 100% zero emission sales targets, and the strategies of some (manufacturers) in achieving these. Is this a temporary impact triggered by policy changes that can still be reversed?” Bernstein said in a report.

Bernstein now expects EVs to account for 51% of EV sales by 2030. That compares with its forecast of 67% nine months ago.

France’s Inovev also said seriously affordable EVs will be required to meet those targets. Inovev suggests splitting the market for EVs, requiring the premium sector to meet targets, while cheap ICE cars would be allowed. The rules could be different for countries too, with poor nations being allowed ICE vehicles for longer, while the likes of Germany and France take the strain for EVs. Big automakers in Germany, France, Italy and Czechia want the EU to waive fines for missing EU 2025 emissions targets.

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, facing a general election next month, has said it made no sense to fine transgressors. The money would be better spent by the automakers on producing more and better EVs.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has launched a "structured dialogue" with the auto sector to discuss changing the CO2 regime. This will be discussed at an EU summit in March. The industry hopes that longer-term aspects of the plan will be watered down. Green groups stand ready to protest if this happens.

Reuters reported Tuesday that automakers selling in Europe which face fines are teaming up to buy carbon credits from Tesla and other leading EV makers. Stellantis, Toyota, Ford, Mazda and Subaru are planning to buy credits from Tesla. Mercedes and others are seeking credits from Geely of China subsidiaries Volvo, and Polestar, Reuters reported, citing filings with the EU.

European carmakers could face up to €15 billion euros in fines for missing the targets, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers Association.