Giannis Antetokounmpo Trade Gives Bucks A Unique Opportunity To Tank

4 hours ago 1

One of the NBA's most drawn-out trade sagas mercifully came to an end Monday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo is heading to the Miami Heat.

The writing had been on the wall regarding Antetokounmpo's future with the Milwaukee Bucks for nearly a full year. The Greek Freak thought his time in Milwaukee had run its course, while the Bucks adamantly refused to even consider dealing him until he made an official trade request.

Although the Bucks dragged their feet for far too long, they still managed to get a decent return for Antetokounmpo. Tyler Herro is only 26 years old and earned an All-Star nod in 2024-25. Kel'el Ware, Jaime Jaquez Jr. and Kasparas Jakučionis are all young players with plenty of untapped upside. The Bucks also got the No. 13 pick in this year's draft along with fully unprotected first-round picks in 2031 and 2033 and a first-round pick swap in 2030, by which point Antetokounmpo will be in his late 30s.

The Bucks might be able to stay competitive with a core of Herro, Ware, Jaquez, Ryan Rollins, Myles Turner, AJ Green and Kyle Kuzma. They won't be a legitimate title contender by any means, but they could probably scrape together a 30-to-35-win season.

However, there's a better path for them. Although NBA commissioner Adam Silver just tried to nip tanking in the bud by overhauling the league's draft-lottery system, the Bucks now have a unique opportunity to exploit that.

Why The Bucks Can Still Tank

The NBA's new lottery system was "designed to eliminate incentives for teams to prioritize their position in the draft over winning games." The league flattened each team's odds of getting a high pick in the draft, and the teams with the three worst records now have worse odds of landing the No. 1 pick than the other non-play-in-tournament teams.

In theory, this system will punish any team that deliberately tears down its roster in an attempt to lose as many games as possible. Teams will be desperate to avoid the "relegation zone" as long as they have their own draft picks.

That's where the Bucks have a unique opportunity. They've already traded away control of most of their future picks.

The Bucks owe their 2027 first-round pick to either New Orleans or Atlanta. Portland and Washington have the right to swap first-round picks with them in 2028. Their 2029 pick is also heading to Portland or Washington, and Portland has swap rights with them in 2030 as well. Meanwhile, the Bucks have already traded away all of their own second-round picks through 2032.

In other words, the relegation zone does not matter to them whatsoever until 2031 at the earliest. In fact, they might have incentive to finish with one of the league's three worst records to reduce the likelihood that any of their picks from 2027 through 2030 land high in the lottery.

Granted, as part of the lottery reform, the league also expanded Silver's "disciplinary authority to address tanking, including the ability to reduce teams' lottery odds, modify teams' draft positions and impose significant fines on offending teams." Bucks co-owners Wes Edens and Jimmy Haslam likely aren't interested in eating millions of dollars in fines for shamelessly tanking.

There's a happy medium for the Bucks to pursue, though.

They don't have to be quite as blatant as teams were over the past few years. They don't have to shut down players with minor injuries and pull starters from competitive games. Their win-loss record is effectively inconsequential to them when it comes to draft positioning for the next few years.

That means they can be aggressive about how they reshape their roster in the post-Antetokounmpo era.

The Bucks' Teardown Shouldn't Stop Here

Both Herro and Jaquez are heading into the last year of their respective contracts. Herro will be an unrestricted free agent in 2027 if he doesn't re-sign with the Bucks before then, while Jaquez will become a restricted free agent next summer if he doesn't sign a rookie-scale extension with Milwaukee before the start of the 2026-27 regular season.

Unless Herro expresses interest in signing an extension with the Bucks, they'd be better off flipping him for additional draft picks and/or young players with upside.

Sam Amick and Eric Nehm of The Athletic reported Tuesday that "it remains unclear if Herro will remain" with the Bucks. "While there is interest in making the Milwaukee native part of his hometown program, sources say the Bucks will also listen to offers for the 26-year-old All-Star," they added.

The Detroit Pistons "should be monitored" as a potential landing spot for Herro, according to longtime NBA insider Marc Stein, as they are "eager to add shooting around Cade Cunningham" this offseason. Omari Sankofa II of the Detroit Free Press mentioned Isaiah Stewart, Duncan Robinson and 2024 No. 5 overall pick Ron Holland as potential candidates to be moved in such a deal.

The Bucks shouldn't stop there. If any team is interested in veterans such as Myles Turner, Kyle Kuzma or AJ Green, Milwaukee should be all ears for offers.

Turner and Kuzma no longer align with the Bucks' post-Giannis timeline. Turner just turned 30 in March, while Kuzma turns 31 in July. Both figure to be long gone from Milwaukee by the time the Bucks are ready to contend for a championship again.

Those players might not fetch much on the trade market, but the Bucks should be willing to use their contracts to take back unwanted salary from other teams. The NBA's new collective bargaining agreement is forcing teams to dump productive players for financial reasons, as the Minnesota Timberwolves just did with All-Star forward Julius Randle shortly before news of the Antetokounmpo trade broke.

The Bucks could allow Kuzma and Herro's contracts to expire and go into the 2027 offseason with a significant amount of cap space, but they aren't going to be a desirable free-agent destination anytime soon. They could use that money to drive up the price on restricted free agents, but they'd be far better off using it to absorb bloated contracts if they can also get assets in those salary-dumps.

Since teams with control of their own draft picks will be desperate to avoid the new relegation zone, there may not be as many teams willing to take on unwanted deals moving forward. The Bucks having less competition in that regard would only help them drive the price up on any financially motivated trades.

The NBA abruptly overhauling the lottery put the Bucks in a tough spot as they weighed what to do about Antetokounmpo. Conducting a deliberate teardown without concern about the draft-pick ramifications would be a clever way for the Bucks to get back at Silver and the league.

It also may be their best chance of expediting their return to championship contention.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.