Phillies receive unexpectedly bleak 26.7% NL East projection from ESPN

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The Philadelphia Phillies' story during the 2026 season is well known at this point. They began 9-19, fired Rob Thomson, and have since been one of the best teams in baseball.

But, since they got put in such a large hole, a few months later, the Phillies are still behind the Atlanta Braves in the NL East race. They're 2.0 games back coming out of the All-Star break, which isn't great, but considering their start to the year, it's not bad.

However, despite the Phillies trending upwards, ESPN's Bradford Doolittle handed them an unexpectedly bleak 26.7% projection to win the NL East. This is a bit lower than what it feels like it should be, considering how close this race has become.

Phillies have 26.7% chance to win NL East per ESPN

"Record 54-43 | Projected final record: 89-73. Division title odds: 26.7% | Playoff odds: 77.8% | Championship odds: 3.4%," Doolittle projects.

The Phillies receiving just a 26.7% chance to win the NL East over the Braves is a bit lower than expected. They're just 2.0 games back of the Braves, and yet they have less than a 30% chance of making up that ground in the next 2.5 months.

Would it really be that surprising, practically a one-in-four chance, for the Phillies to make up two games between July 16 and the end of September?

Even though the Phillies have cooled off a little bit, they're still playing some great baseball overall since the switch to Don Mattingly.

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Also, with how this is an aging core, and the major needs in the rotation, the back-end of the bullpen, and a right-handed hitting outfielder, it wouldn't be a surprise if Dave Dombrowski landed some incredible help at the deadline.

Between being just 2.0 games back and the Phillies' likelihood to add help at the deadline, this 26.7% NL East projection from Doolittle is unexpectedly bleak.

Doolittle has the Braves at a 64.2% chance to win the division, while the Phillies are at just 26.7%. It feels like the Phillies should have better odds than that to win the division, considering how close it is right now.