Renewables To Squeeze Oil And Gas Imports In New Electric Age For Asia

Motorists wait to refuel their vehicles in Sri Lanka in March 2026.

AFP via Getty Images

The Iran war has settled for an uneasy truce. But the price of oil will take months to fall to pre-war levels. Same for elevated prices of gasoline and diesel – not just in the U.S. but also in Asian countries that have suffered a lot more than U.S.

These countries cry out about current oil and gas inflation, but a new report of data from Asian countries is questioning the heavy costs of importing oil and gas when renewable sources like solar, wind, and batteries are available and shrinking in price.

Electrification Is Surging.

Electrification is happening everywhere, and growing world-wide at 15% year-over-year. This refers to electric vehicles (EVs), heat pumps, and electrifying industry. Hence global demand for electricity increased more than twice as fast as energy demand overall, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA Energy Mix newsletter, 15 June 2026).

This has raised concerns about energy security, a hot topic during the Iran war. Regions of the world that import lots of oil and gas have boosted their energy security by investing in renewables, nuclear, electrification, and energy efficiency. Electrification has been a major goal of the EU for many years. Asia can begin its own surge, according to numbers analyzed by EMBER, an energy think-tank.

Worldwide, the leaders of upcoming COP31 have asked IEA to prepare a report on how to increase the electricity share from 20% of total energy consumption now to 35% by 2035.

Energy Supply And Demand In Asian Countries.

A new report by EMBER points to a startling paradigm shift among Asian countries. While current policy in the U.S. is bent on oil and gas saving the world, while diminishing the role of solar and wind renewables, the exact opposite is happening in many Asian countries. The shift has tremendous potential to alter the base of energy security in these countries, and to save hundreds of billions of dollars.

Electro-tech in Asian Countries.

The report covers four sub-regions that are collectively referred to as Asia: Greater China, Southeast Asia, South Asia and Northeast Asia. South Asia includes Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka.

Asia can be considered the world’s electro-tech factory, which refers to renewable technologies that generate electricity. Asia manufactures 95% of solar panels, 85% of batteries, and 75% of wind turbines. EMBER finds that since 2000, three-fourths of the increase in worldwide electricity came from Asia, but its not just about China. If China is excluded, Asia still out-produces the rest of the world in solar modules and battery components.

At the same time, Asian oil and gas reserves are only 4% of the world’s reserves. This huge dichotomy points to one thing: Asia replacing their oil and gas imports by renewables that are readily available. But what about price? In the last five years, said Kingsmill Bond, EMBER director, “The cost of firm electricity from solar backed up by batteries has fallen below that of fossil fuels for almost all of Asia. What was competitive before is irresistible now.”

Further, the cost of solar and batteries hybrid is now cheaper than LNG (liquefied natural gas) in three-fourths of Asian localities that are planning on new gas-fired electricity power plants. EMBER predicts that by 2030, solar and batteries will win, pricewise, over LNG in all Asian localities.

This comparison has intensified since the Iran war cut off oil and gas supplies to Asia, which will take months to recover from. The other oil and gas shock was Russia’s attack on Ukraine in 2022, when Russia cut off its gas pipeline to Europe. This led to LNG costs rising in Asia when Europe outbid Asia for LNG supplies from U.S.

The scenario should give pause to the U.S. which has recently opened new LNG terminals, and expanded others, along the Gulf Coast, and become the world’s leading exporter of LNG. Investments in new LNG terminals, which cost upwards of a billion dollars, are based on markets lasting 10-20 years. If renewables in Asia steal their thunder, LNG may become a stranded resource in some places.

Developing countries in southeast Asia, and emerging markets like India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, are having their LNG supplies curtailed by the Iran war. If these countries decide to go forward to cheaper Chinese renewables (like Pakistan has done) their demand for LNG may fall. In a worst case, this may lead to stranded LNG terminals in the U.S.

The Alarming Cost Of Driving ICE Vehicles In Asia.

The supply side of the situation was addressed above. EMBER has also addressed the demand side of the equation, which is even more dramatic. The subject is replacing ICE vehicles (internal combustion engines), that are currently dominant in Asia, by electric vehicles (EVs). The issue centers on oil and gas which must be imported to run ICE cars and trucks versus in-country electricity generation by electro-tech renewables to run EVs. The latter is now a no-brainer, according to EMBER.

The numbers are a stark positive for a transition like this. 80% of oil used in road transport across Asia has to be imported. But if this is replaced by electro-tech generation, which is being manufactured in Asia, the region could save $US300 billion every year. Yes, the electro-tech revolution still needs to be developed within Asia, and this will take time. But EMBER estimates savings of $110 billion in 2035, increasing to $350 billion in 2050.

These savings are set against the enormous cost that Asia bears for importing fossil fuels: $1.1 trillion every year. “Asia could electrify its fleet within twenty years and halve its oil imports. No single lever does more for the region’s balance of payments and energy security,” said Daan Walter, lead author of the EMBER report.

How does this compare with U.S. policy? President Trump’s stated goal is to provide the world with cheap energy, in the form of oil and gas. Energy Secretary Wright has also stated that energy poverty is the greatest problem faced by the world, and all types of energy will be needed to solve this problem. In Asia, it appears that solar, wind, and battery renewables now have a cost and availability advantage over oil and gas. Local deployment of renewables in Asian countries could have a resounding effect on import/export payments by reducing the enormous costs of importing oil and gas. This could harbinger a new age of electro-tech in Asia.