The Secret Weapon That May Reduce Hurricane Activity

IN SPACE, CARIBBEAN SEA - OCTOBER 26: (EDITOR'S NOTE: This Handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images' editorial policy.) In this handout satellite image provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) , Hurricane Melissa strengthens into a Category 4 storm as it churns northwest through the Caribbean Sea captured at 7:40Z on October 26, 2025. Hurricane Melissa has intensified into a Category 4 hurricane and could further develop into a Category 5 as it approaches Jamaica, according to the National Hurricane Center. (Photo by NOAA via Getty Images)

Getty Images

One of the nation’s most expected research groups issued an update on its seasonal prediction for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. It’s good news. They further reduced the expected number of named storms in the basin this year. There is a secret weapon that we may have to thank, but it comes with a cost.

Updated Activity Projections For The 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Basin

“We further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season,” according to the CSU Tropical Cyclones, Radar, Atmospheric Modeling, and Software Team. “Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season,” the TC-RAMS website went on to say.

TC-RAMS issued their initial seasonal forecast in April and an update in June. In both cases, the number of storms was expected to be below normal. However, the July update issued this week reduced the number even more. NOAA projections earlier in the year had also called for slightly below normal activity. Colorado State forecasters are now calling for 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and only 1 major hurricane. That’s good news. but I will get to the “but” later. The season already had one named storm, Tropical Storm Arthur.

The Secret Weapon

“We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear,” said TC-RAMS forecasters. It is well-known that El Niño can suppress activity out in the Atlantic basin and main development region. However, I always caution people that it only takes “one” storm, and none of these seasonal projections guarantee no storm activity. For this reason, I am always antsy about writing this type of article. “Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity,” reminded the experts at CSU.

Even as El Niño helps with hurricanes. It can still bring its own share of hazards. Because it shifts jet stream patterns, it brings a host of weather changes to the U.S. and globally. The current El Niño is expected to be quite strong also. Conditions expected include stormy conditions across the southern part of the country, high tide flooding and algal blooms in the West, and extreme rainfall in the Southwest. The northeastern U.S. could deal with drought, according to NASA’s website. In many parts of the country, fishing, agriculture, and ecosystem services are disrupted too. El Niño years are often warmer than normal and that does not bode well as the nation deals with a series of heat domes, including one this coming week.