The Texas Hill Country Is Flooding Again — And It’s Bad

A member of the public looks out at flooding caused by a flash flood at the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, Texas, on July 5, 2025. Rescuers were desperately searching for at least 20 girls missing from a riverside summer camp, officials said on July 5, after torrential rains caused a "catastrophic" flash flood that killed at least 24 people as it swept through south-central Texas. (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT / AFP) (Photo by RONALDO SCHEMIDT/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Do you remember the deadly floods in Texas Hill Country? That region experienced catastrophic flooding around July 4, 2025. Unfortunately, it is happening again right now. Flood Watches and Warnings are currently up for the Hill Country, southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grand Plains, and the I-35 corridor through Thursday evening. The region has experienced a couple of days of extremely high rainfall rates and that will continue for at least another day.

What’s Going On Right Now?

“There is the potential for life-threatening flooding somewhere in the watch area. There is a level Level 4 of 4 Risk (High) for flooding rain (today) for portions of the U.S. 90 corridor, west of San Antonio - including the southern Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande, and western Hill Country,” wrote the National Weather Service on Thursday morning. “Considerable to locally catastrophic flash flooding impacts likely in this region. Pockets of an additional 10-15 inches of rain in this region are possible,” they continued.

To make matters worse, there was also a Tornado Warning at the time of writing in the region too. “At 554 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Montell, or 18 miles southwest of Leakey, moving north at 15 mph,” warned the National Weather Service.

Flooding over the 24 hours has been significant and will continue most of the day."Barely 1 year after the catastrophic flooding along the Guadalupe River Basin through Kerrville, Texas, history is once again repeating itself," wrote meteorologist Chris Jackson on his social media page. For a region devastated by flooding so recently, a flash flood emergency is the last thing they need to see. Jackson also noted that major water rescues from cars, homes, and the rooftops of motor homes are occurring as of Thursday morning.

Why Extreme Flooding Is Happening Again?

“Very high rainfall rates potentially reaching 2 to 4 inches per hour will again be possible,” wrote NWS. “Because of how saturated soils are, even rates of 0.5 to 1 inch per hour will be sufficient to trigger flash flooding that will again rapidly accumulate into creeks, rivers and arroyos across the area,” they cautioned.

This event is associated with a mesoscale convective system that currently features a well-defined vortex. This Mesoscale Convective Vortex or MCV has caused torrential rains in the region over the past few days. A strong low-level jet overnight is also pumping moisture into the region. Forecasters are watching this MCV carefully. "Wherever this MCV re-initiates will be where the heaviest
bullseye of rain will fall…. Another 10 to 15 inches of rainfall will be possible in this heavier bullseye,’ wrote NWS this morning.

According to the New York Times, over 75 people have already been rescued, and I suspect that number will certainly rise with this ongoing flood emergency. Governor Greg Abbott has already issued a disaster declaration for almost 60 counties in the state.

This is likely a weather event compounded by a moisture-laden atmosphere and warm Gulf that is consistent with climate change. Ironically, a new report from the National Academies is being issued today on what we know about attributing current weather events to climate change influences. The Texas Hill Country is one of the most significant flood corridors in the U.S. because of its geographical attributes and proximity to the Gulf. Forthcoming published research by my colleague Ashton Robinson-Cook and me documented the primary flood corridors in the U.S. based on vulnerability analysis and exessive rainfall outlooks. What concerns me more is that because of physics and responses to warming climate, the atmosphere is quite “juiced” going forward.

This is an evolving story that we will need to watch.