The Year Ahead: Promise For Quantum Growth

John Prisco, Security CEO & founder of Safe Quantum Inc., working with data-driven companies to develop and deploy quantum-safe technologies

The United Nations proclaimed 2025 as the International Year of Quantum Science and Technology, marking the centenary of Werner Heisenberg's efforts to develop the mathematical formulation of quantum phenomena.

Despite the fact that AI seems to be garnering more publicity than quantum and even raising the possibility that AI may eclipse it, it’s safe to say the year ahead should see continued gains in quantum technology.

First, there should be a shift in the focus on solving some of the problems of quantum computing.

For example, qubit count dominated the world of quantum computers in 2024 (i.e., focusing on how many quantum bits of information any given computer could generate). But we have seen a recent shift to focus on error correction and fault-tolerant quantum computers—a move from quantity toward quality.

Indeed, AI can help with error correction, so I believe AI and quantum will peacefully coexist in 2025.

Second, the industry will need to reset expectations around the availability of a cryptographically relevant quantum computer. Also known as a CRQC or “fault-tolerant” computer, this is a quantum computer that is powerful enough to break standard public-key encryption.

Initial hopes had pinned 2025 as the year we’d see one, but now predictions of 2030 present a more realistic date.

This is good news for security professionals because it gives you more time to define your post-quantum security strategy and to determine an early course of action toward protecting your most critical data assets (see my previous articles on defense in depth and perfect forward secrecy for a bit more background on this).

Third, the release of post-quantum cryptography (PQC) algorithms from the National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST) will no doubt spur increased development worldwide for quantum-safe encryption.

These mathematical solutions are designed to be used to replace today’s public-key encryption. No doubt, they are a necessary and productive step in the quest for quantum readiness.

That said, the fourth trend I foresee in 2025 is that the PQC release will also continue to drive increased support for quantum-key distribution (QKD) technologies, which should see more usage, especially in North America.

In my opinion, QKD continues to be the most interesting topic for the development of quantum-proof security today, protecting against data-harvesting attacks that will come years before quantum computers can break encryption.

On the business side, 2025 also promises an uptick in business activity for quantum startups.

IonQ fired the first shot in the M&A opportunities for quantum startups back in 2021, becoming the first publicly traded pure-play quantum computing company. In late 2024, IonQ filed to acquire Qubitekk as part of its strategy to apply distributed computer development as a means to progress toward a CRQC computer in data centers.

I predict that IonQ, among others in the space, has just begun its M&A program.

Expect to see acquisitions, mergers and joint ventures across geographies in the coming year, with several interesting possibilities in Europe.

All that said, 2025 will see technical advancement in quantum technology, as in previous years, but we’ll begin to see the signs of business maturity, with more companies seeking a competitive go-to-market position as the quantum landscape shifts.

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