Victor Wembanyama's New Contract Could Break The NBA's Balance Of Power

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Oklahoma City Thunder v San Antonio Spurs - Game Four

Fresh off an appearance in the NBA Finals in only his third season in the league, San Antonio Spurs wunderkind center Victor Wembanyama was poised to cash in this summer. On Friday, he did—to an extent.

Wembanyama agreed to a five-year maximum-contract extension with the Spurs, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania, which is projected to be worth north of $250 million. However, his contract will start at 25% of the 2027-28 salary cap even if he wins MVP or Defensive Player of the Year or makes an All-NBA team.

Wembanyama could have put language in his extension that bumped his salary up to 30% of the cap with any of those league honors. Instead, he "chose a contract sacrifice rooted in giving him and the organization increased ability to build a sustained title contender around him," according to Charania.

That's the exact choice that the NBA's current collective bargaining agreement is designed to force stars to make.

The Boston Celtics just traded Jaylen Brown in large part because he was earning roughly 35% of the salary cap. The Cleveland Cavaliers just gave Donovan Mitchell that exact contract extension, which could put them in a similar boat in the coming years.

Meanwhile, Wembanyama just gave the Spurs a golden gift, particularly in the second-apron era where every dollar matters more than ever. If they spend that extra financial flexibility wisely—and they have two clear players whom they should be saving money for—his contract could be responsible for disrupting the NBA's balance of power over the next few years.

Did Wembanyama Learn From Brunson?

Two years ago, Jalen Brunson signed a four-year, $156 million extension with the New York Knicks. It was the most he was eligible to receive at the time given his previous salary, but it equated to only around 23% of the salary cap. He was eligible to receive up to 30% of the cap from the Knicks or any other team had he become a free agent the following summer.

In the two years since, the Knicks have bumped right up against their second-apron hard cap. In 2024-25, they finished exactly $53,349 below that line. This past season, they upset Wembanyama and the Spurs in the NBA Finals to snap their 53-year championship drought.

After the Spurs' Finals-ending loss, Wembanyama told reporters that he'd had "a hell of a year in terms of experience."

"I don't think we could have learned more and gained more experience in one playoff run and in one season, and personally in 18 months," he said. "It's been hard and full of lessons."

One of those lessons might have been off the court.

Had Brunson not taken a well-below-max deal, the Knicks couldn't have put together the roster they had this past season. Considering how key every one of their highly paid players was to their championship run, it's fair to wonder whether they'd be the reigning champs right now without one of Karl-Anthony Towns, OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, Josh Hart and Mitchell Robinson.

But with the smell of champagne still wafting in the New York air, team governor James Dolan said on a local radio station that the Knicks "cannot go into the second apron." If a team fresh off a championship won't do it to retain a key rotation piece—Robinson wound up signing a three-year deal via the non-taxpayer mid-level exception with the Boston Celtics—when will they?

In Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper, the Spurs have two young backcourt stars in the making. Both figure to command max or near-max deals when their rookie-scale contracts expire in the next few years. They already have De'Aaron Fox on a max contract as well, although he'll likely be long gone before he conflicts with Castle and Harper's new deals.

Still, the writing is on the wall for the Spurs: They're going to have three massive contracts on their books between Wembanyama, Castle and Harper moving forward. Having seen what's happening with the Oklahoma City Thunder, who've shed Aaron Wiggins and Isaiah Joe for salary reasons (albeit while picking up four second-round picks), Wembanyama chose to help optimize his team's chances of bolstering the supporting cast around him.

Let's give some numerical perspective here. Had Wembanyama taken a 30% max, it would have started at $52.2 million and been worth nearly $303 million in full based on the $174 million salary-cap projection for 2027-28. His new 25% max will start at $43.5 million and be worth a projected $252 million in total.

That's a noble sacrifice for Wembanyama to make, and it's very Spurs-ian of him. Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginóbili all did the same to keep as much of their championship core together during their time in San Antonio. But that's the exact workaround to the system that the NBA has in place.

If Wembanyama passed up a 30% max—fresh off winning Defensive Player of the Year—he set the standard for Castle and Harper. If all three settle for no more than 25% of the cap, that trio wouldn't be earning much more than Brown and Jayson Tatum combined.

The National Basketball Players Association doesn't seem keen on this becoming a trend, though.

The Players' Union Pushes Back

Wembanyama's contract caught the attention of NBPA executive director David Kelly, who spoke with reporters in Las Vegas at summer league.

"We think the players should make decisions for themselves and we should not be ... pocket-watching," Kelly said when asked about Wembanyama, per ESPN's Ben Golliver. "The system should not require a player to carry all of that burden. We should not put a player in the position to carry the burden of keeping a team together."

That's what the system is designed to do, though. If Wembanyama wants to stay together with Castle and Harper, all three of them realistically can't take 30% maxes. Wembanyama knew that and acted accordingly.

Some players haven't fully adjusted to this new NBA reality. Mitchell's 35% supermax extension looks even worse by comparison now, and it already wasn't looking great to begin with. Paul George, whom the Celtics acquired in the Brown trade, signed a four-year, $211.6 million supermax with the Philadelphia 76ers two years ago in free agency, and the contract began aging like spoiled milk right away.

Since one mistake has the potential to cripple a team more than ever before, teams are acting more trepidatious about handing out big-money, long-term contracts unless it's for a no-brainer. Most teams are also treating the second apron as a de facto hard cap, and players are taking notice.

The NBA's current collective bargaining agreement runs through 2029-30, although both the league office/team owners and players union have the ability to opt out one year early. This offseason might wind up being the straw that broke this CBA's back.

Because for every dollar the Spurs don't spend on Wembanyama over the next half-decade—an estimated $50 million or so—they can save that money for Castle and Harper's next contracts. They'll have to trade Fox before those two new deals go on their books, but they don't need to rush into it. They still have time on their side for now.

In fact, Wembanyama just made life easier on the Spurs from a long-term planning perspective moving forward. He's staying in San Antonio, and he was willing to give up around $10 million per season.

There's no guarantee that Wembanyama would have qualified for the 30% max. If he plays fewer than 65 games in 2026-27, he won't be eligible for the higher contract. But if he does play 65-plus games, he's about as much of a lock to win Defensive Player of the Year as there ever can be prior to the start of the season.

The questions now is whether other stars will follow in Brunson and Wembanyama's footsteps. If not, Wembanyama and the Spurs will have a massive competitive advantage over just about every team outside of Oklahoma City and Houston.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats via NBA.com, PBPStats, Cleaning the Glass or Basketball Reference. All salary information via Spotrac and salary-cap information via RealGM. All odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.