Why the Tigers should (and shouldn't) trade star ace Tarik Skubal at the 2026 MLB trade deadline

Every contender is looking for an upgrade ahead of the MLB trade deadline, but no player might be more coveted than Tigers ace Tarik Skubal.

The two-time Cy Young Award winner is a pending free agent and has been viewed as a trade candidate since the Tigers fell as many as 16 games under .500 early in the season.

With better results in recent weeks, however, Detroit could still hold on to Skubal and try to make another run at the postseason.

What's the right decision? Here are the cases for and against the Tigers trading Skubal.

MORE: 16 players who could be traded by MLB deadline

Why the Tigers should trade Tarik Skubal

Barring a drastic change of heart, the Tigers aren't going to re-sign Skubal. The two sides have reportedly remained far apart in contract talks, and the record-setting $13 million gap between Skubal and the Tigers during the arbitration process was likely the final nail in the coffin.

With that in mind, if the Tigers held on to Skubal for the remainder of the season, what would it take to make that decision a success? If it's strictly a World Series win, you can probably take that idea off the table. Not only are the Tigers still comfortably under .500, but there isn't any reason to believe they have the talent to win a championship.

Is it a trip to the World Series? The American League is wide open, but if the Tigers couldn't get past the ALDS last season, that's hard to envision. If the ALCS, which is also unlikely, would justify keeping Skubal, Detroit should think long and hard about whether that's a worthwhile goal.

From a practical standpoint, making the postseason is unlikely. The Tigers are facing a six-game deficit in the AL Central, which is manageable, but they have three teams ahead of them rather than just one team to chase down. Detroit is closer in the wild-card race but faces the same dynamic, with four teams separating the franchise from the final wild-card team.

Skubal is coming off two excellent starts, his best since returning from the injured list. If he isn't coming back next season, it makes more sense to go get some value instead of holding on to a pipe dream of a magical October run.

MORE: Tarik Skubal makes trade deadline stance clear

Why the Tigers shouldn't trade Tarik Skubal

The Tigers might not want their reputation to be that of a team that had a chance at the postseason and threw it away by dealing a beloved ace. With the American League so mediocre and the final wild-card team hovering near .500, Detroit could set a goal of 83-85 wins and enter a wild-card series with one of baseball's elite pitchers setting the tone in Game 1.

Looking around the AL, only two teams are more than six games over .500: the Rays, who still have to prove that they can win in October, and the Yankees, who have held their own in the second half but are struggling to find any offense with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and now Cody Bellinger injured.

The Tigers may see 2026 as their year to make a run in October — if they can get there. Getting there with Skubal is challenging. Getting there without Skubal is just about impossible.

Tarik Skubal contract details

Skubal is set to be a free agent after this season. The Tigers ace is making $32 million after the salary arbitration process ruled in his favor over Detroit's significantly lower $19 million offer. 

That gap has convinced most fans that Skubal is headed elsewhere in free agency in the winter, and Skubal recently made comments that alluded to some lingering tension between himself and the front office.

If the Tigers decide their best bet is to keep Skubal and try to engineer a miraculous postseason run, they run the risk of getting no talent back for one of the best pitchers in baseball, much like the Angels when they held onto Shohei Ohtani at the 2023 deadline.