Xbox Helix May Only Sell 2 Million Consoles In Its Launch Year, Says Analyst

A Microsoft Xbox Series X home video game console, taken on October 27, 2020. (Photo by Phil Barker/Future Publishing via Getty Images)

Future Publishing via Getty Images

Microsoft has given out perilously few details about Xbox’s Project Helix, its next-generation console which will arrive on the back of a truly dismal period for the brand. We know it’s some sort of PC/console hybrid, but the immediate complicating factors are the exodus of consumers from the Xbox brand relative to its competition and skyrocketing hardware costs that have nearly doubled console prices across the board in the past few years (not just Xbox).

Analysts are reading the tea leaves and rendering predictions based on all this. The firm S&P Global has now forecast that Xbox Helix will sell only 2 million consoles in its launch year, below the 3.2 million for the Xbox Series X/S last year, which was already the lowest annual total on record. In 2026, Xbox is predicted to only sell 2.5 million consoles, leagues below its competition of PlayStation and Nintendo.

Here’s S&P Global Market Intelligence analyst Neil Barbour who explains the metrics its using for Helix via GamesIndustry.biz:

"Our forecast is functionally splitting the difference between a proper Xbox successor and an Xbox-certification program with PC OEMs, and readers should treat the post-2027 Microsoft trajectory as a range of outcomes contingent on decisions yet to be made or revealed."

What he’s saying here is that if the Helix turns out to be just an open PC platform with the Xbox brand slapped on it, it wouldn't count in the “console sales” model. A true console would appeal to “a narrower, more enthusiast-oriented audience.”

Again, a lot of this is cost, and the “PC with Xbox branding” idea would no doubt cost even more. However, this analysis makes many assumptions about the Helix based on limited information. But if these predictions are anywhere close to correct, it would be a disaster. Looking at this past generation:

• The Switch 2 sold 19.86 million units in about its first 10 months of launch.
• PS5 shipped 17.4 million units its first 12 months
• The Xbox Series X/S is estimated to have shipped 7-8 million units in its first year, though Xbox no longer lists official console sales numbers.

A 2 million start for something that’s supposed to be the next-gen Xbox would be an utter disaster. Triple that, and it still would. One note is that the PS5 and Xbox Series era was during COVID, which caused production shortages that depressed numbers.

This analysis is estimating something along the lines of a 5:1 ratio from PlayStation to Xbox right now, and while the predictions are low, it is inescapable that 1) the Helix price almost has to be high in the current market, 2) Xbox still is in search of a roster of must-have games and 3) a console that plays PC games is still a pretty niche audience, and it may have to provide more significant benefits than its competition. None of this is to say that PS6 won’t be damaged by a high price as well, but it is certainly starting out in a better position.

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