Yes, Summer Is Supposed To Be Hot But Not This Hot

FILE - Salvation Army volunteer Francisca Corral, center, gives water to a man at a their Valley Heat Relief Station, July 11, 2023 in Phoenix. More Americans believe they've personally felt the impact of climate change because of recent extreme weather, including a summer that brought dangerous heat for much of the United States, according to new polling from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. (AP Photo/Matt York, File)

Copyright 2023 The Associated Press. All rights reserved

Exceptional heat is gripping Europe. The United Kingdom saw its hottest June day, and France had its hottest day on record. Across the continent, basic services are being disrupted, and people are dying because of the heat. In the United States, much of the country is bracing for heatwave that could push parts of the East Coast above the century mark by the July 4th weekend. Extreme heat impacts energy production, public health, agriculture, infrastructure, and aviation. Yet, many people in the public view summer heat in very narrow ways. As officials and meteorologists warn about elevated heat risks, simplistic rebuttals like “It’s summer it is supposed to be hot” litter social media and backyard conversations. Such false narratives are dangerous. How do we overcome them?

I was inspired to write this piece after seeing a post by Meteorologist Lily Chaney on her North Georgia Weather Authority Facebook page. Chaney, an outstanding meteorologist whom I follow and former student of our atmospheric sciences program at the University of Georgia, warned people that temperatures would be quite hot the last few days of June and into July. One comment basically suggested that was unnecessary hype because, “It is supposed to be hot in the summer.” In that moment, I realized the significant uphill battle the weather and climate community has with communicating heat risks.

It’s absolutely supposed to be hot in June and July. However, many people overlook the nuances of what that means, and how temperatures are changing. The average temperature in Athens, Georgia on July 1 is around 90 degrees Fahrenheit. Yet, this year it may be closer to 100 degrees Fahrenheit. That additional 10 degrees matters. It elevates heat risks, weakens infrastructure, and places stress on household energy bills.

When temperatures are that hot during the daytime, it often means elevated temperatures at night which can be particularly distressing to elderly populations, kids, or households without adequate air conditioning. That’s what is so problematic about record temperatures in Europe. Only about one out of four homes have air conditioning. At times during the current heatwave, nighttime temperatures lingered in the eighties or near ninety. Retired NOAA Hurricane Hunter and meteorologist Richard Henning summed it up in pretty clear terms. “I have found it is really difficult to explain how the biggest problem in urban areas is the sharp rise in overnight low temperatures,” he told me. “Many folks do not have the attention span to listen to more than a couple of sentences and just resort to broad brush snickers that it’s supposed to be hot,” he continued.

Jordan McLeod is a former meteorology lecturer at the University of South Alabama and future doctoral student. “What’s also unusual is the extreme levels of humidity, but many people in the public look at heat through a one dimensional lens of air temperature,” McLeod told me. Web-Bulb Globe Temperature and Heat Index attempt to convey heat-humidity risks to people.

It’s not that I am psychic, but if I asked most people to name the weather type that kills more people in the U.S. annually, they are going to say tornadoes, hurricanes or maybe lightning. It is actually heat, according to National Weather Service statistics. I think scales like the Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale used for hurricane risk communication could be the answer for elevating heat risk. Even with their flaws, people resonate with them. In Europe, they use color-based scales to indicate levels of extreme weather threats. “The Met Office has issued a Red Warning for Extreme Heat for Friday. The first time in the history of the current weather warning systems that red warnings have been issued for extreme heat for three consecutive days in the UK,” wrote a UK Met Office press release today.

So What’s The Psychology Of People Dismissing Extreme Heat?

In a 2022 Oregon Public Broadcasting essay, Lauren Sommer examined why heat messaging may be falling short in the U.S. Some of her reasons included:

• Misunderstanding the NWS Heat Index warnings and underestimating risks associated with them. The Heat Index itself is fairly limited and does not capture the full range of risks associated with heat for active people, workers, or people playing sports.
• Many people view heat as an annual summer nuisance but have no reference for differentiating dangerous extreme events. This is also common with extreme rainfall events. Because people experience rain all of the time, they may underestimate or misunderstand risk when an particularly dangerous rain event, like the Texas Hill Country Flooding, is warned.
• People may not realize that climate change is already increasing the heatwave intensity and frequency. In other words, this is not your mother’s or grandmother’s summer heat, and the data confirms it.

Complacency Is A Problem

The good news is that the National Weather Service is now supplementing its heat watches and warnings with the HeatRisk scale, which has similarities to the European systems. The graphic below shows the anticipated HeatRisk level for the U.S. on July 1. Hopefully, these systems will catch on with the public, but my professional sense is that most people have no idea what the HeatRisk is and simply look at their weather app temperatures to conclude, “It’s hot!”

We have lived through summers all of our lives. However, the benchmark heat of our past creates a false sense of security or complacency. People mistakenly assume a random hot day in late June is the same as an anomalous heatwave with temperatures ten degrees above what it should be that week. “Complacency is a state of decreased external awareness and sensitivity to hazards caused by the brain’s ability to activate neural pathways that require less PFC activity and executive function,” wrote the Public Risk Management Association website. “Complacency is a byproduct of habit," it continued.

Over the course of my experience as an expert in the weather and climate field, I have noticed a dangerous risk equation when it comes to public perceptions about heat. Heat risk is some function of heat exposure, vulnerability, the ability to adapt to or manage the exposure, complacency, and misunderstanding of the new realities of climate change.