Michigan State faces grim outlook in Pat Fitzgerald's first season in return to Big Ten

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Rebuilding a college football program in the transfer portal era is a daunting task. Attempting a massive culture reset in the middle of the deepest, most unforgiving conference in the sport is an entirely different nightmare.

For Michigan State fans hoping for a rapid resurgence in 2026, the latest national projections serve as a harsh, unyielding reality check. According to the 2026 game picks and win-loss predictions from CBS Sports analyst Brad Crawford, the Spartans are projected to suffer a dismal 3-9 overall record, managing a catastrophic 1-8 mark in Big Ten play.

The only silver lining for Michigan State in 2026 might be September in Pat Fitzgerald's first season in East Lansing. Crawford’s model projects the Spartans will secure non-conference victories against Toledo and Eastern Michigan, padding their early win total.

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But the moment the schedule stiffens, the floor is projected to collapse entirely. The lone bright spot in their conference slate is a projected victory over Northwestern. Outside of that, Crawford expects Michigan State to serve as the proverbial punching bag for the rest of the league.

The harsh truth about Michigan State’s 2026 outlook is that the schedule simply offers zero relief for a program in transition. Crawford’s model predicts a non-conference road loss to Notre Dame, setting the tone for an eight-game Big Ten losing streak.

The Spartans are projected to suffer agonizing defeats against Nebraska, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Rutgers, and to be completely outclassed by the league's upper-tier contenders in losses to UCLA, Michigan, Washington, and Oregon.

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In the 18-team Big Ten, coaching transitions are punished severely. "Coaching transitions at places like Michigan State add another layer of uncertainty," Crawford noted in his broad conference assessment.

That uncertainty translates directly into a lack of depth and execution when facing proven contenders.

A 3-9 finish would keep the Spartans firmly out of the postseason and force uncomfortable conversations in East Lansing about the program's immediate future.